2019 seems to be a transitional year in marketing. Between the rise of the technology of AI and the ever-growing need for optimisation, last year could be considered as the inflection point between what was the norm in the last decade and what is likely to become the standard from 2020 onwards. This article explores 5 major observations to look into when drafting the next strategy.
Every area of every business is booming with technological change. From platforms to tools to apps, we are witnessing a profound shift and an increase demand for SaaS. This also calls for more processes and models, enhancing brand visibility, speed, sales, and encouraging the automation culture.
1. The new Digital Ground floor will revolutionise the entire end-to-end customer experience
Artificial Intelligence, representing both a landmark and a significant technological achievement, was deeply transformative for the marketing industry to an extent similar to science fiction. AI and IoT have pushed the boundaries for traditional marketing approaches. If this new concept was to be put in the adoption curve, it would be transitioning from the Early Adopters to the Early Majority, marking its availability to the masses.
This, in turn, implies the necessity to have a deep understanding to further personalise and tailor data according to business needs. Allowing for an enhanced and more retaining User Experience and satisfying customer queries on an individual level.
2. Marketing Mix Modelling is the new Wild Card for marketers
Marketing mix modelling is broadly used to boost advertising campaigns and promotions through improving Return on Investment (ROI). Capitalising on the plethora of data and the ease of trackability, as well as the role of Machine Learning in automating lengthy processes, presented new opportunities to better leverage the promises of Marketing Mix Modelling as a methodology.
3. Finding the golden prospects is key
In sales, one of the most important factors directly linked to whether the sale will reach the final stage plays out in the very beginning. This translates as choosing the adequate tools and the optimal approaches, with third party vendors becoming more and more accessible with high utility.
Tele prospecting solutions such as LeadsProvider, a cross-selling call center in France, invest time and effort in choosing qualified hot leads rather than trying to maximise the number of leads generated. Applying the Pareto Principle believing that 80% of the sales come from only 20% of the clients, brands are prioritising focused long-term outcome over short-term outcome and outsourcing tasks to entities with higher expertise and know-how.
4. Brand messages are 5 times more reaching when they are shared by employees
According to a study by Nielsen, 84% of people trust recommendations from friends, family, colleagues over other forms of marketing. Brand messages had a 561% higher reach when shared by employees vs. the same messages shared via official brand social channels as reported by MSLGroup. Also, content shared by employees receives 8x more engagement rates than content shared by brand channels, claims Social Media Today.
Attracting and retaining talents is still one of the keyways to make the most out of the company’s marketing campaigns by sharing and encouraging their respective networks to indulge is far more effective than traditional targeting approaches.
5. Smart data instead of Big data
In 2020, the number of expected IoT devices would be 38.5 billion compared to 400 million in 2019, implying that companies are heavily investing in this technology and streamlining IoT to run smoother and more intelligent data analytics.
From 2020 onwards, the top priority becomes how to quantify data. Gone are the days where data could be gathered without needing quality measurement tools.
The trend in 2020 will be to make drive exponential growth from Marketing Measurement. CNBC states that 70% of marketers believe that marketing would be the primary source of business growth in the current year. This holds true and is widely becoming a fact in an era where it is strongly believed that “Data is the new Oil”
Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM), is primarily concerned with using historical data to explain the incremental contribution of the different sales drivers. This allows, among other things, to calculate the Return on Investments (ROI) of every channel in the marketing mix, including media, over the historical modeling period.
But can MMM also predict the future?
MMM has already established itself as an indispensable tool to provide valuable learnings and insights from the past to help CMOs make informed decisions and wisely design and execute future marketing strategies. In addition, these CMOs also expect MMM to tell how much revenue will be generated by every channel and hence predict, to certainly acceptable accuracy, the overall sales over one time period.
So, is MMM merely a descriptive analytics tool or is it also one of those fancy predictive machine learning techniques everyone is talking about?Well, the answer is yes … and no. In fact, it depends!
Marketing Mix Modeling is based on regression analysis which is one of the most popular techniques in statistics and machine learning. It is also a well-studied and understood methodology which gained in maturity and robustness over many decades through intensive research and wide use in various applications and fields.
In fact, regression analysis is based on estimation theories and on the glamorous and well-established Central Limit Theorem. These mathematical tools permit to quantify the error in estimating the unknown parameter thus allow to reduce that error if the right estimator is used.
It’s All About Sampling!
To simplify the concept, most of us would understand that taking a sample from a population and calculating the average of say, the age, will give a good indication of the average of the full population.
This would be so if some important criteria like the sample size or the level of variation in the population are considered.
Consequently, if we take a new sample and calculate the average age again, the result will be close enough to the estimate we already know. The Central Limit Theorem allows us to be, say, 95% confident that the average age calculated from any randomly selected sample will be within a predefined “Confidence Interval”.
This powerful mathematical tool is the same one that allows statisticians to very quickly and very precisely tell, for instance, the results of an election just by using exit polls based on a very small sample of voters.
Regression analysis is based on a similar concept.
Instead of using the sample mean as an estimator it uses another more complex mathematical formula called Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) or other variations of it. The OLS would use one sample, in this case, the historical data at hand, to estimate the coefficients of the different variables included in the model. The coefficients are the parameters we are seeking to estimate and are analogous to the average population age or the score obtained by a presidential election’s candidate. The coefficient of a variable would represent for example the incremental revenue generated by a media channel for every dollar spent or the elasticity of prices etc.
If the marketing manager trusts the analyst creating the MMM model to explain the past, then he should also trust he can apply the same estimated coefficients on a new sample in the future. If those coefficients cannot be trusted to estimate the revenue for the next few months, then they equally should not be trusted to explain what happened in the past. After all, by design, the underlying assumption is that the incremental impact of every factor is supposed to be stable over the previous year, the year before and the year before (i.e. the fit period). Consequently, it is expected to remain stable at least over the next few months as well.
However, there are some conditions to be respected.First, it is crucial that the variables in the model are all statistically significant.
That is, their impact on sales as observed in the training data (i.e. the sample) is genuine and not the result of random circumstances unlikely to be reproduced in the future. As a rule of thumb, the t-stat, that measures the significance of the impact of those variables, should be above two. If this rule was not respected, then the confidence intervals of the coefficients risk being very wide. Hence, the actual values we are trying to estimate may fluctuate widely depending on the input data resulting in very unexpected prediction results.
Second, for the results to be accurate, the sample used should be representative of the overall population.
Equally important, the historical data used to estimate the MMM model should be representative of “what usually happens” or would happen in the future. So, for example, the creative used in the ads should remain the “same”. Albeit, in practice, “the same” actually means “close enough”. That is, the same content is used, the same laydown, the same strategy is maintained, etc. The economic situation also should permit to assume that the same consumer behavior is maintained hence the same responses e.g. to media, promotions and other stimuli.
For this reason, the prediction would usually be trusted just for a short period in the future, say a few months. Consequently, it is recommended to refresh the models quite frequently, ideally, monthly or quarterly. Refreshing the models does not mean necessarily redoing the models but it should suffice to merely update the coefficients of the same models with the new data and keep an eye on the different statistical metrics used to assess the quality of those models.
Refreshing the models at this frequency should be possible if the advertisers, or their analytics agencies, have the right tools to reduce the cost of the usually expensive MMM projects. How to do that? An article to address this topic in detail will follow soon.
“This is precisely the time when artists go to work. There is no time for despair, no place for self-pity, no need for silence, no room for fear. We speak, we write, we do language. That is how civilizations heal” – Toni Morrison
The COVID-19 pandemic has turned the whole world upside down.
Despite all the negative aspects of this crisis, we can’t deny that COVID-19 has definitely brought us together and changed forever the way we look at things and respond to the unknown.
Fighting the pre-sets
One of the most important things I came to learn since the outbreak of Covid-19 is to resist the urge of “forcing things” and particularly increasing sales activity!
Since an early age, we, humans, are conditioned to think the more work we do, the harder we try, the more results we get. We always fear not doing enough, not performing as expected, disappointing! Hence, a natural response to a crisis is to try to do more to compensate for the slow flow of business!
Unfortunately, these “pre-set” recipes of success have been challenged by COVID 19. In this new landscape, doing more of the same things does not necessarily lead to the desired outcome.
That is why it is very important for businesses to mark a pause, collect facts, analyze the situation and devise the best plan that recognizes the specifics of the “new normal” and prepares for the “Next Normal”.
How do we adapt?
Our early readings and analysis of the fast-evolving COVID- 19 situation alongside the acceleration of unfortunate events that many businesses in our industry endured, made us reach a collegial decision to stop all forms of sales activity, particularly prospecting.
Our adaptation plan was articulated around the following:
· Internally: How can we make the most out of the time made available to us during confinement?
· Externally: How can we best support our clients throughout this crisis?
Making the most out of the confinement
The world around us is changing, new processes and tools are constantly being implemented and improved to ensure all the teams can work remotely in an efficient way to ensure business continuity.
This was the golden time for us to revamp and enrich our internal training and make it available online. We invested time and energy collecting, consolidating, and deepening all the material developed over the years. We then articulated an internal training plan, so all the teams benefit from this initiative.
For example, we created a comprehensive conceptual and practical content on Marketing Mix Modeling. It was a blend of all the internal documentation, white papers, and publications produced previously and enriched with new educational material to match the new trends in the measurement industry.
This initiative received great appreciation from our teams that were able to fine-tune their knowledge in various domains.
Offering the best support to clients
“This is a time for empathy, not hard selling. Build for the Long-term”
This is not the time for chasing sales opportunity, it is the time for showing support and commitments to clients. During confinement, people were trying different methods to improve their knowledge and make the best use of the time made available to them, so they prepare for the post corona phase.
We were all overwhelmed by an avalanche of online courses and training covering various topics. Yet, there was no single online course specialized in Marketing Mix Modeling!
Our sales team decided to leverage the content and training created internally to offer a comprehensive Marketing Mix Modeling online training to our clients.
Our efforts led to the complete revamp of our existing Marketing Mix Modeling Online training platform (OTP).
The OTP was designed to take participants through an end-to-end MMM journey from data collection to data processing, modeling, optimization, and scenario simulation.
We offered all our clients a 3-month free subscription to the platform and we extended the offer to the prospects we had in our pipeline.
Our clients/prospects truly appreciated this initiative that demonstrated our commitment to supporting their businesses.
The exchanges we had with our clients during the crisis, showed that many of them were interested in understanding the “post-corona phase”. We then decided to launch our MMM expert initiative to shed more light on this by finding out and sharing experts’ opinions on the subject.
The initiative consisted in interviewing top thinkers, leaders, and experts in the Marketing Mix Modeling industry, to know their speculations on what the future holds for the industry and get their honest diagnosis of the situation. These interviews were published on our website and LI page and useful tips were shared with our audience to help them prepare for the “Next Normal”.
This pandemic brought fundamental changes to the way we function and respond to changes. It has challenged every pre-set we had and is shaping a new way for businesses to be run and relationships to be managed. Most importantly, it reinforced the values of caring and sharing in our communities and redefined our priorities.
Adapting smartly to the “New Normal” through embracing novel approaches and different mindset will help us thrive in the “Next Normal”
One cannot deny the important role social media is playing in the success of nowadays brands. These recent years, companies of all sizes are relying heavily on social media sites and blogs to reach their customers and grow their businesses. However, the proliferation of these channels and the large number of people using them have grown greatly. This has created challenges for companies to oversee and manage these platforms effectively. Social Media analytics tools can help businesses, a great deal, in manging these platforms and gain useful insight about their audience.
“Social media analytics (SMA) refers to the approach of collecting data from social media sites and blogs and evaluating that data to make business decisions.” — Techopedia.com
According to the latest report issued by Quantzig, a global analytics solutions provider, five reasons have been identified, to encourage businesses to invest in Social Media Analytics:
Gain an advantage over competitors: Social media analytics gives you insight on what your competitors are doing, what your customers like and the overall perception of your company. This will help anticipate the moves of your competitors and meet the needs of your customers.
Product/service enhancements: Feedback and reviews give you the opportunity to know exactly how well you are performing, make corrective actions and enhance the customer experience.
Learn from customers: Your customers can help you overcome your challenges through their experience. Allow yourself to get inspired by their solutions and ideas!
Improved targeted marketing efforts: Get timely information about your audience, from demographic and psychographic characteristics to the optimal time to post. Use these insights to best reach your prospects.
The opportunity for innovation: Through Social Media Analytics tools you can discover gaps in the market and be the first to fill them. Your customers’ feedback will allow you to innovate your products and services and will inspire you to launch creative online campaigns.
A new report – The State of Marketing Attribution 2017, shows the implementation of attribution has risen from 31% to 39% amongst brands and their agencies. Yet, only 30% of those using attribution are acting upon its insights. The report, the output of AdRoll and Econsultancy, found there is a misunderstanding amongst advertisers as to the nature of successful attribution. Surprisingly, most are still using simple models such as last-click attribution or first-click attribution, instead of taking the “holistic and nuanced” approach the report suggests is required.
Nonetheless, 60% of respondents are attempting to have a joined-up approach to attribution; by endeavouring to implement it across all their media channels.
“Only 30% of those using attribution are acting upon its insights”
Barriers to successful implementation of attribution appear to be centred around technology and staffing. According to the report, respondents don’t have faith that their technology will meet their attribution needs, and 77% say they can’t find the right staff. The inability to “create a culture of measurement and accuracy” was apparently cited by 80% of brands and 71% of agencies.
Optimisation of the marketing mix is the Number One goal of attribution. As a result of attribution, there has been a net increase in the numbers raising their ad spend on content marketing (2%), display advertising (4%), paid search (23%), social media marketing / Facebook advertising (36%). Simultaneously, affiliate marketing and email marketing were down 10% and 4% respectively. These figures, of course, mask the real budgets as they only refer to the numbers of people who said they were going to increase or decrease their budget and do not tell us what those budgets actually are.
Clearly, there is room for agencies and their clients to get much more out of attribution, perhaps by using more powerful models and specialist software and thereby gain a better handle on the effectiveness of their media expenditure.
by Dellistina James, Head of Business Development at Mass Analytics
October 23rd, 2017
Learn more about MassTer, and let us help you uncover the bright side of your marketing ROI. Request your FREE TRIAL now.
Bitcoin hit the blogosphere headlines in recent weeks (specifically, Friday 13th, which turned out to be lucky for some) when it reached a peak of $5,856 per “coin” and thereby exceeding the price of gold.
All this fuss has been for something that has no physical entity; a currency that pays reverence to no sovereign state and is not controlled by any government or bank, central or otherwise. Cryptocurrencies and the technology they are based upon have the potential to be the most disruptive phenomenon since the Internet. Whereas many see the upside of this, some governments, extremely fearful of the power of digital currencies have banned them, due to their decentralised nature, and thus their ability to fly under the radar of national governments and their central banks.
On seeing that it cannot put the Genie back in the bottle, the UK and US’ governments have sought to regulate digital currencies in a positive and hospitable way. This enabling approach to regulation has led to a large number of startups using the technology in both the UK and US. Indeed 56% of the world startups adopting this technology are based in either the US or UK.
“I don’t see any available solution that’s ready to be scaled … by 2019″
So,Can Bitcoin save the ad industry?
It is the technology behind cryptocurrencies that offer the industry the most promise. Every bitcoin transaction is recorded in a virtual ledger known the blockchain. The ledger is maintained by a peer-to-peer community who collectively upkeep it. This activity means every transaction is transparent, accounted for, permanent, verified and traceable. Qualities, to which the ad industry aspires. Through a combination of cryptography and the inherent structure of the blockchain, it is not readily possible to falsify entries in the ledger; or to modify or delete them. If it were possible to apply the qualities of transparency, verifiability and accountability to the world of advertising, it would go some way to reducing the $16.4 billion price tag of global ad fraud.
When can the industry expect the coming of a blockchain saviour?
No time soon, said Jack Smith, chief product officer for GroupM North America, “I don’t see any available solution that’s ready to be scaled with a significant number of transactions by 2019….I just haven’t seen it in the market.”
The problem is this: the speed with which the peer-to-peer community that updates the blockchain can move is too slow to keep up with programmatic advertising. Nonetheless, there are believers in the blockchain’s promise, and these have started their own marketplaces and side projects. One such example of this started earlier this year when, Los Angeles-based startup MetaX joint ventured with software firm ConsenSys to launch adChain, a curated whitelist of publishers and advertisers that will use blockchain to vet sources of inventory with a democratised voting system.
Marketing effectiveness professionals should watch this growing space.
by Dellistina James, Head of Business Development at Mass Analytics
November 2nd, 2017.
Learn more about MassTer, and let us help you uncover the bright side of your marketing ROI. Request your FREE TRIAL now.
Recent Comments